The Seventh Senedd begins amid unresolved questions about Wales’ constitutional future. But what kind of future do people in Wales want, and how could governments work better together to improve outcomes?
Welsh devolution has been characterised by almost continuous evolution over its 27-year history. The latest change – an expansion of the parliament and a new electoral system – is one of the most significant so far. But where does devolution go from here?
The expansion of the Senedd seeks to address perceived capacity constraints but does not resolve the ongoing debate about whether the current devolution settlement is sustainable.
One of the key challenges for the Seventh Senedd will be setting the direction of travel for this next chapter for devolution.
Possible options for the future
According to a recent opinion poll, substantial proportions of the Welsh population support independence (26%) or abolishing the Senedd (28%), but neither option has the majority support of the Welsh population. Instead, a plurality support the continuation of some form of devolution, whether that involves maintaining the status quo or altering the powers of the Senedd.
Figure 1: Results from a survey asking the Welsh public how they would vote if referendums were held tomorrow on either Wales becoming an independent country or on abolishing the Senedd
Source: YouGov / Barn Cymru Survey (5-12 January 2026)
The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, established by the Welsh Government in 2022, considered this matter in detail and came up with three ‘viable options’:
- enhanced devolution;
- federalism; and
- independence.
All three assume the continuation of a form of self-government in Wales, with some requiring larger changes to the way in which the UK is governed as a whole.
Research conducted for the Independent Commission asked respondents who they thought should be responsible for certain policy areas. In areas not already devolved, it found there was narrow public support for policing and welfare powers being overseen by the Senedd and Welsh Government, but strong views that immigration and foreign policy should remain the responsibility of Westminster.
Figure 2: Results of a survey conducted for the Independent Commission on who respondents think should be responsible for certain policy areas in Wales
Source: Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (2024)
The Commission went on to recommend there should be further devolution of powers over broadcasting, energy, justice and policing, and rail services.
The previous Welsh Government committed to further devolution of powers
to the Senedd. At the end of the Sixth Senedd, it published an update on progress made on a range of areas. This included a joint statement with the UK Government on commitments on youth justice and probation, and a report on the devolution of the Crown Estate.
If the new Welsh Government wants to pursue these matters further, then its relationship with the UK Government will be key. Ultimately, any change to the powers of the Senedd will require an Act of the UK Parliament. While the UK Government has made commitments to explore the devolution of probation and youth justice, it has been opposed to the devolution of other areas, such as policing, the Crown Estate and rail services.
A key consideration for the new Welsh Government will be whether it wishes to continue to pursue further devolution of powers.
The importance of governments working well together
Public polling suggests that people in Wales want the governments of the UK to work better together. According to research undertaken for Policywise, 95% of people in Scotland and Wales want stronger cooperation between their governments and Westminster.
It found that 68% of people in Wales felt that the Welsh and UK governments do not work well together at the moment. This isn’t a situation unique to Wales, with 60% of respondents from Scotland feeling the same.
Figure 3: Results of a survey conducted for Policywise in Wales and Scotland about intergovernmental relations
Source: Public Attitudes Toward Intergovernmental Cooperation in Scotland and Wales (2026)
However, a majority of the population do believe that governments could work well together, but are not currently doing so. In Wales, 49% of people believe that closer working between governments ensures the nation’s interests are considered during UK-wide decision-making, with the NHS (52%) considered the area most in need of closer working.
This desire for governments to work together also came through strongly in the work of the Independent Commission. A survey for the Commission found 92% of people believe it’s important for both the UK and devolved governments to work together.
There were a number of important steps forward to improve the structure of intergovernmental relations between the Welsh and UK governments during the Sixth Senedd, with the establishment of a new system of formal intergovernmental meetings and the UK Government’s aim to ‘reset’ relations with the devolved governments. Though the lack of transparency with some of these structures has posed scrutiny challenges for the Senedd.
Regardless of who runs the Welsh Government, it is clear the people of Wales want relationships between governments to improve to ensure the current devolution settlement works for them and to support the public services they rely on.
The challenge for the Seventh Senedd
As the Seventh Senedd begins, the constitutional debate remains anything but settled. While the public continues to back devolution in principle, only 36% of people in Wales think that it has been a good thing, compared to 48% in Scotland. Incoming Senedd Members and the new Welsh Government will have to face the challenge of making devolution work for the people of Wales.
As well as making the most of the powers it already has, there is an ongoing debate about whether further powers should be sought for the Senedd, over areas like justice, energy and rail infrastructure.
What is clear from the evidence is that people want governments to work better together, regardless of their constitutional preferences. Stronger intergovernmental relationships and a more coherent approach to joint working are seen as essential foundations for whatever comes next.
Wales’ constitutional future cannot be fully determined in one Senedd term, but the Seventh Senedd will have a key role to play in shaping the next chapter of devolution.
Article by Josh Hayman, Senedd Research, Welsh Parliament
