The summer of 2026 was record-breaking. Wales experienced exceptionally hot and dry weather and official heatwaves were recorded in May, June, July, and August.
Heatwaves pose significant health risks and can place additional strain on health and care services. The Met Office estimates that there were more than 2,700 excess deaths in England and Wales during the May and June 2026 heatwaves.
Hot weather contributed to increased demand in emergency departments. During the June heatwave the Welsh Ambulance Service and Aneurin Bevan University Health Board declared critical incidents. Cardiff and Vale University Health Board warned that appointments could be postponed due to extreme temperatures. In May and June, more than 1,000 operations were cancelled due to heat across England and Wales.
The Met Office says that human-induced climate change made this year’s heatwaves much more likely, and its projections indicate that UK summers will continue to get hotter. This article asks what the future looks like for health and care services in Wales as the climate warms, and whether we are prepared for rising temperatures.
The effect of high temperatures on health
Severe hot weather can be dangerous. Heat-related illnesses, like heat cramps, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke, can affect anyone. However, some groups are more at risk than others.
- People aged over 65
- Children under 5
- Pregnant women
- People with pre-existing health conditions
- Those who live on their own or in a care home
- People on certain medications
- People who spend a lot of time outside or in hot places, like those who work outside or homeless people
Heat can increase the likelihood of serious health conditions like heart attacks, strokes, respiratory problems, and kidney diseases. It also has an effect on mental health and wellbeing, there is evidence that high temperatures increase hospital admissions for mental illness and the risk of suicide. In 2024, psychological and psychiatric attendances at emergency departments in Wales increased 90% in urban areas during a period of heat.
Heat-related mortality
Temperatures above 25ºC are associated with increased risk of heat-related deaths, with higher temperatures associated with an even greater risk of death.
Public Health Wales (PHW) published the first Annual Surveillance Report of heat mortality monitoring in 2025. It found that although Wales did not experience a heatwave in 2024, a brief heat period was associated with a statistically significant rise in daily deaths. People aged 85 and over experienced the highest mortality rates. Urban areas saw more than triple the death rate compared to rural regions, perhaps due to the ‘urban heat island’ effect. However, PHW concluded that further analysis was needed to establish the extent to which deaths were caused by heat exposure.
The Deputy Minister for Public and Preventative Health, Nerys Evans MS, has confirmed that PHW has been doing a “rapid review” of the impact of the heat during summer 2026 on deaths, which will be used to inform long-term planning.
The effect of high temperatures on health and care services
The physical infrastructure of health services can struggle to cope in high temperatures. Healthcare facility overheating is widespread across the UK, including in clinical spaces. Essential equipment, like radiotherapy machines, MRI scanners, and IT systems can fail.
These conditions have an impact on staff wellbeing and productivity. Several representative bodies for healthcare professionals raised serious concerns about working conditions during summer 2026. The Royal College of Physicians reported “awful” conditions in overcrowded and overheated wards. The Royal College of Nursing said that “unforgiving uniforms, outdated heating systems and a lack of water stations can create dangerous work environments”. A Doctors’ Association UK survey found that 94% of respondents reported having no, or only partial, air conditioning, and 83% described their workplace as “very hot or dangerously hot”.
Older people are particularly at risk. The British Geriatrics Society warns that heatwaves are “particularly challenging for social care services due to a lack of appropriate facilities in care homes and in people’s own homes”. A survey of staff in UK care homes during summer 2025 found that 66% of respondents complained of being too hot three or more times per day, impacting on their ability to perform tasks and on residents’ comfort and health.
A report for the independent UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) found “a lack of quantitative evidence on how extreme heat affects healthcare supply capacity, workforce productivity, and infrastructure resilience”, suggesting further research is needed to understand the risks.
Adaptations for the future
The CCC’s report A Well-Adapted UK – the Fourth Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk predicts that unless action is taken, “excess heat-related deaths in heatwave periods are projected to increase from 1,400–3,000 in the UK today, to 3,000–10,000 by 2050”.
The CCC says that effective adaptation is possible and can limit the impact of rising temperatures on public health and make health and social care services more resilient.
The CCC’s recommendations include:
- Cooling measures in health and social care buildings, both passive measures like insulation, blinds, and maximising green space, and active cooling, like air conditioning.
- Preventative healthcare, like in-person visits by health care workers to people at highest risk during heatwaves.
- Operational adaptation for health and social care services, like workforce training, business continuity plans, and emergency planning, to help services to operate safely during extreme weather events.
Action to address the changing climate has begun in Wales. PHW published a Health Impact Assessment of climate change in 2023. The previous Welsh Government published a Climate Adaptation Strategy and a Climate Adaptation Toolkit for health and social care services in 2024. The Welsh Government health and social care climate emergency national programme provides strategic oversight for the sector.
Winter pressures become a year-round risk
Heat-related demand could place additional pressure on health and social care services, particularly emergency departments, alongside pressures typically associated with winter.
In a statement on winter preparedness, the Cabinet Minister for Health and Care, Mabon ap Gwynfor MS, said that the Welsh Government intends to introduce a “year-round approach” to preparing for seasonal pressures by 2030. He described this as moving beyond a “narrow winter focus to continuous data-driven planning that can adapt to changing risks across the year”.
Ageing estates and the cost of adaptation
The CCC say that adapting health and social care estates with passive and active cooling measures can provide large risk reductions and be cost effective. Whether retrofitting existing buildings or building new infrastructure, significant capital investment will be required.
However, adaptation measures are only one factor in the wider “public discussion”, called for by the Cabinet Minister, on whether NHS Wales should continue maintaining its “crumbling estates”, or invest in new buildings.
The NHS Confederation says that the current age and condition of the NHS Wales estate can affect “safety, productivity and patient experience”. There is already a £1.5 billion maintenance backlog. The call to adapt buildings to manage rising temperatures is an additional strain on capital budgets.
Preparing services for a hotter future
Climate projections indicate that, at the level of global warming expected by 2050, Wales could experience 50% more days with temperatures above 25ºC. More frequent hot weather could increase risks to public health and place additional pressure on health and care services.
Adaptation measures can reduce these risks. The Welsh Government and health and care bodies will therefore need to consider how to balance current service pressures with preparations for a changing climate.
Article by Angharad Lewis, Senedd Research, Welsh Parliament