Why are people from Wales in prison? What the data can tell us

His Majesty’s Prisons and Probation Service (HMPPS) has published Welsh-specific justice data for the second time. The data covers people in prison in England and Wales who were living, or recorded as living, in Wales before custody.

Prisons and sentencing are not devolved matters. They are the responsibility of the UK Government, through the Ministry of Justice and HMPPS. Wales and England operate as a single prison estate, meaning people from Wales can be held in prisons in either Wales or England, depending on factors such as security category, sentence type, capacity and the availability of places.

The data covers four snapshot points between 30 September 2025 and 30 June 2026. Clinks(a criminal justice charity), academics, and Senedd and UK Parliamentary Committees have long called for disaggregated Welsh justice data to improve understanding of how the justice system affects people from Wales.

What offences are people from Wales most likely to be in prison for?

The data shows that between September 2025 and June 2026, the overall number of prisoners with a Welsh-origin address stayed broadly stable, falling slightly from 4,901 in September 2025 to 4,887 in June 2026, after peaking at 5,045 in March 2026.

On 30 June 2026, the largest offence group among prisoners with a Welsh-origin address was violence against the person, with 1,478 prisoners. This was around 30% of the total Welsh-origin prison population. Sexual offences were the second largest group, with 978 prisoners, around 20% of the total. Drug offences were also a major category, with 768 prisoners, followed by theft offences, with 498 prisoners.

The offence profile is broadly similar to the English-origin prison population, but with a lower share recorded for violence, robbery and possession of weapons, and a higher share for drug and theft offences. This suggests Welsh policy makers may need to give particular attention to substance misuse, drug-related offending and acquisitive crime, alongside violence and sexual offending.

Does a higher imprisonment rate mean Wales is more dangerous?

Using the latest mid-year population estimate for Wales of around 3.18 million people, 4,887 prisoners with a Welsh-origin address in June 2026 is equivalent to around 154 prisoners per 100,000 people, or about 0.15% of the Welsh population. This is only an estimate, but it helps show the scale of imprisonment linked to Wales.

By comparison, the total prison population for England and Wales was 85,858 on 30 June 2026. Excluding the 4,887 prisoners with a Welsh-origin address gives an estimated English-origin prison population of 80,971, equivalent to around 138 prisoners per 100,000 people in England.

The House of Commons Welsh Affairs Committee’s 2026 report on prisons, probation and rehabilitation in Wales says the imprisonment rate in Wales has “consistently been shown” to be higher than in England. It recommended that the Ministry of Justice and Welsh Government jointly commission a review into the reasons for this.

These figures show that Wales has a higher estimated imprisonment rate than England, but imprisonment rates are not the same as crime rates or a direct measure of public risk. Prison numbers are shaped by remand, sentencing, recall, social need, and the availability and use of community alternatives. ONS crime statistics remain the main official source for crime trends.

How many prison places are there in Wales, and how full are they with Welsh-origin prisoners?

Welsh-origin prisoners are concentrated in a small number of prisons, especially prisons in Wales. In June 2026, the largest numbers were held in HMP/YOI Parc, HMP Berwyn, and HMP Cardiff. HMP/YOI Parc was by far the largest location, holding 1,536 prisoners with a Welsh-origin address.

Many English prisons also hold people with Welsh-origin addresses. Distance from home can affect family contact, visits, Welsh language provision, resettlement planning and links with Welsh housing, health and social care services.

Prison capacity is usually reported using operational capacity — the number of people a prison can hold while maintaining safety and control. The Ministry of Justice publishes monthly prison population and capacity figures.

Published sources give recent examples of operational capacity in individual prisons. HMP Berwyn’s Independent Monitoring Board reported an operating capacity of about 2,000, while a 2026 Parliamentary report stated that HMP/YOI Parc had an operational capacity of 1,849 in February 2026.

Using the data shared for June 2026, Welsh prisons held at least 1,622 prisoners with an English-origin address and around 3,496 prisoners with a Welsh-origin address. HMP Berwyn is the main outlier: it held 1,173 English-origin prisoners compared with 736 Welsh-origin prisoners.

(Source: Welsh Justice Data: Annual Release 2026 - GOV.UK)

Note: Parc and Prescoed are referred to as HMP/YOI establishments in some sources. Figures are establishment-level and include any young offender institution provision where applicable.

The Welsh-origin data should also be read alongside wider evidence about conditions in Welsh prisons. Recent evidence to the House of Commons Welsh Affairs Committee highlighted concerns about deaths, self-harm, assaults and drug availability, particularly at HMP/YOI Parc. This provides important context for why location, safety, healthcare, substance misuse support and rehabilitation matter.

Who is in the Welsh-origin prison population?

The Welsh-origin prison population is overwhelmingly male. In June 2026, there were 4,887 prisoners with a Welsh-origin address, of whom 222 were women held in female prisons. There is no women’s prison in Wales, so Welsh-origin women are held in prisons in England. HMP Eastwood Park was the main location for women with a Welsh-origin address.

By age, the population is concentrated among adults aged 30 to 49. In June 2026, there were 1,682 prisoners aged 30 to 39 and 1,123 aged 40 to 49 years. 940 prisoners were aged 50 or over.

By ethnicity, the population is predominantly recorded as White. In June 2026, 4,350 out of 4,887 prisoners with a Welsh-origin address were recorded as White, around 89% of the total. Other ethnic groups were much smaller, and ethnicity was recorded for most prisoners.

By religion and belief, the largest single category was no faith or belief, with 1,204 prisoners in June 2026. Agnostic, Atheist and Humanist prisoners were also a large group, while Muslim prisoners were the largest non-Christian faith group.

What are the policy implications?

The data points to several policy issues for Wales. First, prison and resettlement policy needs to follow people from Wales wherever they are held. This is particularly important for women, who are held outside Wales, but it also applies to men held in English prisons. Welsh housing, health, social care, substance misuse, education and probation services may all need to connect with prisons across the England and Wales estate.

Second, the sentence and recall data points to longer-term planning. The largest sentence group is people serving four years or more, and recall to custody remains significant. Policy responses therefore need to consider rehabilitation, family contact, mental health, education, release planning, and whether housing, treatment and community supervision are working effectively after release.

Third, demographic data points to the need for age-appropriate and inclusive services. A mainly working-age prison population needs support with employment, housing, family relationships and reintegration. An ageing prison population also needs health, disability, mobility and social care planning.

For Welsh policy makers, the key challenge is ensuring that people linked to Wales receive appropriate support before custody, during custody and when they return to Welsh communities. The new data does not explain why people from Wales are in prison, but it gives policy makers a clearer picture of who is in prison, where they are held and what offences they are held for. This can help inform planning across devolved and non-devolved responsibilities. Recent changes to automatic release dates in England and Wales make community support, probation and resettlement planning even more important.

Article by Sarah Hatherley, Senedd Research, Welsh Parliament