Welsh trade under the UK’s trade deals

This briefing presents new analysis of changes in Welsh trade in goods under five of the UK’s post-Brexit trade deals with the EU, Japan, New Zealand, Australia and the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (“CPTPP”) trade bloc.

While each trading relationship is unique, common themes emerged which form the basis of the following key findings:

The amount of physical goods traded (trade volumes) with each of the five partners decreased since the deals entered into force. Over the periods analysed, total trade volumes dropped off by 83.3% with Japan, by 75.9% with Australia, by 73.7% with the CPTPP trade bloc, by 22.8% with New Zealand and by 8.9% with the EU. The greatest single decrease was of Australian imports into Wales, which had decreased by 98.4% by the year ending June 2026.

The picture is more mixed when it comes to changes in the value of trade between Wales and the five partners. Such changes can reflect fluctuations in the value of certain products so do not necessarily follow changes in the quantity of goods traded. Overall trade values increased with New Zealand by 35.2%, by 17.1% with Australia, by 10.4% with the EU and by 1.7% with the CPTPP trade bloc over the period analysed, but decreased by 44.7% with Japan over the same period. .

While trade drop offs can be attributed to factors such as global economic downturns, reduced consumer demand and supply chain disruption, the analysis shows limited benefits to Wales. Trade between Wales and Japan decreased by both value and volume over the period analysed (44.7% by value and 83.3% by volume). The value of trade with the other four partners increased despite trade volumes dropping off but the greatest increases were with Australia and New Zealand, the smallest trading partners featured in this analysis.  

Trade between Wales and its largest trading partner, the EU, increased in value under the UK-EU trade deal but had not recovered in volume to pre-Brexit levels. Over the period analysed, there were significant drop-offs in the amount of goods traded between Wales and the EU, by up to 31.0%. Volumes had not fully recovered after five years under the deal, remaining around 8.9% lower than in the period before the UK left the trade bloc. Meanwhile, the value of trade was up by 10.4% driven by increases in the value of EU imports into Wales.

Figure 1: Percentage changes in the value and volume of trade in goods between Wales and each partner, compared to each partner’s baseline

Source: Regional trade statistics (HMRC, 2026). Senedd Research analysis of comparable time periods before and after the entry into force of each deal (2014-2026).

Article by Sara Moran, Peter Davies and Josh Jenkins, Senedd Research, Welsh Parliament