Workforce challenges remain one of the most pressing issues facing social care. Persistent vacancies and recruitment and retention difficulties continue to affect service delivery, despite the introduction of the Real Living Wage for care workers.
This article builds on our recent analysis of the need for adult social care reform, and Sixth Senedd scrutiny of pressures in children’s social care. It examines the latest developments affecting the adult social care workforce, including recent changes to immigration policy.
Sustained workforce pressures
Social Care Wales (the national workforce regulator and development body) identifies staff retention as one of the most significant challenges facing the sector. Its latest workforce survey shows one in five care workers plan to leave social care within 14 months.
According to the Association of Directors of Social Services (ADSS) Cymru, “high turnover means services are in a near-permanent cycle of recruitment”, and pay has not kept pace with comparable public sector roles. Care Forum Wales, which represents independent care providers, reports that the shortage of care workers is especially severe in rural areas.
Despite repeated calls for better social care workforce data during the Sixth Senedd, live vacancy rates are still not published. According to Social Care Wales’s 2024 workforce report, the latest publicly available information, vacancies remained stable at an estimated 5,346 as of 31 March 2024.
Social Care Wales has worked with partners to develop a voluntary pay and progression framework for the sector aimed at driving improvements. ADSS Cymru says the next essential step is to make the framework mandatory across all providers. It warns that without a mechanism to enforce consistent adoption in commissioned services, current pressures and inequities will persist.
The previous Welsh Government acknowledged that, despite social care roles being crucial to communities, “our workforce continues to face low pay and inconsistent employment conditions across the sector”. It consulted on the creation of a new Social Care Negotiating Body for Wales earlier this year. The proposed body would support the introduction of Fair Pay Agreements, setting legally enforceable minimum standards for pay, terms and conditions across the sector.
The closure of a key recruitment route
According to Care Forum Wales, the social care sector in Wales relies on international workers, “because these individuals have the right values and skills, and because there are not enough local workers to meet demand”.
In England, Skills for Care estimated that in 2024/25, workers with a non-British nationality accounted for nearly 30% of the adult social care workforce. Comparable published data is not available for Wales.
In 2022 skilled worker visas were extended to overseas care workers to tackle record UK staffing shortages. However, in 2024 the UK Government began to implement tighter visa restrictions for migrant care workers. Our two part series highlighted the impact of this, including concerns about modern slavery and exploitation.
Since then, further UK Government changes to visa rules in July 2025 have effectively closed off routes into social care for new overseas workers. Employers can no longer sponsor new workers from outside the UK for care worker and senior care worker roles. Existing visa holders are unaffected and transitional arrangements are expected to continue until around 2028.
Sector representatives have expressed concerns about the potential impact of the move. ADSS Cymru warned it could cut off “a vital lifeline for care services”, and risk people waiting longer for essential care and support.
Describing the visa changes as “a new and serious risk for the sector”, ADSS Cymru stressed that an important recruitment pathway has been removed without providing a credible domestic alternative. It also highlighted concerns that social care is not included on the Temporary Shortage List despite persistently high vacancy rates, and said it will continue to work with the Welsh Government to press for transitional support.
Care Forum Wales echoed these concerns, warning that tighter visa restrictions could undermine service stability. It argues the latest moves exacerbate recruitment challenges and risk driving away existing international staff.
The previous Welsh Government established the National Advisory Service (NAS) in response to concerns from social care employers seeking to recruit internationally. The NAS aims to help overseas care workers already in the UK who have lost their jobs, or are at risk of doing so, to find ethical alternative employment within the sector through job matching and signposting to support services. The Welsh Government says the NAS is also developing a vacancy register to connect workers with employers.
The Scottish Government has gone further, calling on the Home Office to reverse its decision to close the route and investing £500,000 to fund a tailored offer to help displaced international social care workers. It said the funding is to help support international social care workers meet the costs associated with moving to and working in Scotland’s social care sector.
Further restrictions ahead?
The UK Government’s proposed ‘earned settlement’ model would treble the qualifying period for permanent residence (also known as indefinite leave to remain) for migrant care workers in the UK from five to 15 years. The proposal has attracted significant criticism from trade unions and stakeholders.
UNISON says ”moving the goalposts”, by applying these changes retrospectively to workers who are already here, is morally wrong. It argues many workers accepted jobs on the understanding that they could apply for indefinite leave to remain after five years. The union warns that this move would deepen the staffing crisis and leave workers more vulnerable to exploitation by forcing them into prolonged insecurity.
The Care Workers’ Charity described the proposals as shortsighted, stressing that adult social care cannot function without migrant workers. Similar concerns were expressed by provider representatives Care England and the National Care Association. There has also been disagreement within the UK Government on the issue, with some reportedly arguing that care workers should be exempt from the proposed settlement changes.
UNISON is campaigning against retrospective changes to settlement rules and for a sector-wide visa scheme. It is also encouraging councils to adopt its Migrant Care Worker Charter. Cardiff Council became the first Welsh local authority to sign the charter, with UNISON noting that migrant workers constitute a significant proportion of Cardiff's adult social care workforce. According to UNISON, the charter commits the council to enhanced scrutiny of care providers, support for fair pay, and action where workers face threats relating to their visa status or potential deportation.
What to watch out for
The consultation on the proposed changes to the settlement period closed in February 2026, and the UK Government is yet to publish its final decision.
New Prime Minister Andy Burnham has committed to “fix social care”, and said he “wants to immediately focus on lifting up the social care workforce” in England. He has accelerated the timescale for the independent Casey Commission on Adult Social Care, to report on reform recommendations in England. The Commission launched the Big Conversation on Care in July, and now plans to publish its report by summer 2027.
In February 2026, the previous Welsh Government provided funding for a new National Social Care Academy for care workers to develop their skills and gain qualifications. A Welsh Government update on the Social Care Negotiating Body consultation says details of the outcome will be published by the end of this summer (2026).
The new Deputy Minister for Mental Health, Social Care and Women’s Health, Delyth Jewell MS, indicated that her priorities include progress towards fairer pay and conditions, and parity of esteem for social care workers with NHS staff. She also said a workforce review will be conducted “very shortly”.
A key question for the Seventh Senedd is whether the new Welsh Government can improve workforce sustainability, while mitigating the impact of tighter immigration restrictions.
Article by Amy Clifton, Senedd Research, Welsh Parliament