The Welsh Government wants policing to be devolved, transferring legislative and executive responsibility to the Senedd and Welsh Ministers. The UK Government’s policing reforms published in January 2026, do not propose this. Instead, they could lead to Wales-specific administrative arrangements for governing police forces while policing remains reserved.
During his first official visit to Wales as Prime Minister on 27 August, Andy Burnham MP said he was open to discussing policing devolution with the Welsh Government. His comments suggest that wider constitutional change may now be open for discussion, but it is not part of the reforms currently on the table.
The constitutional starting point
Policing is reserved to the UK Parliament, while health, education, housing, social services and local government are devolved. These services affect community safety, crime prevention and demand on the police. Police funding in Wales also reflects this shared landscape. It combines Home Office and Welsh Government support with revenue raised locally through council tax precepts. Police forces therefore operate within an England-and-Wales system while working closely with devolved services in Wales - an interface described as the ‘jagged edge’ of the justice system.
What does the White Paper offer Wales?
Policing reform and policing devolution are related, but distinct. The UK Government’s January 2026 White Paper, From local to national: a new model for policing, proposes major structural and administrative changes across England and Wales. These include abolishing Police and Crime Commissioners (PCCs) in 2028, reviewing force numbers and boundaries, creating a National Police Service for serious and complex crime, and strengthening national standards and oversight.
The White Paper does not propose transferring legislative or executive responsibility for policing to Wales. Full devolution would require changes to the Welsh devolution settlement. What is on the table is narrower. Because the White Paper proposes moving local policing governance into local government - and local government is devolved - the UK and Welsh governments must agree replacement arrangements for Wales. These could give Wales greater administrative control and democratic oversight while policing law, powers and ultimate responsibility remain reserved.
This distinction is important. Successive commissions, including the Silk Commission, the Thomas Commission, the Brown Commission and the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, have considered the wider case for devolution. However, the White Paper focuses on how policing is governed, not on fully devolving it.
The immediate choices for Wales
Wales’s PCCs broadly support the White Paper’s aims, but say its implications for Welsh governance and funding remain unclear. They told the Welsh Affairs Select Committee that reform should include consideration of devolution, rather than simply creating new England-and-Wales arrangements. Their proposed Welsh model combines a national partnership board with four regional boards aligned to the existing force areas.
Other evidence favours stronger community involvement. Wrexham University calls for locally rooted accountability, while Nottingham Trent University warns that boards dominated by local-authority representatives could weaken independent scrutiny.
Three immediate issues will shape the Welsh arrangements:
The UK Government plans to abolish PCCs in 2028. In parts of England, elected mayors already oversee policing. Wales has no equivalent regional mayors, so it will need different arrangements. The UK Government has said Wales’s devolved local government structure will be taken into account. Scotland and Northern Ireland already have separate policing settlements.
The funding implications of the White Paper for Wales are not yet clear. Police forces are funded through government grants and council tax precepts, while the Welsh Government separately funds police community support officers (PCSOs) and related services.
For 2026-27, the four forces will receive about £512.34 million in core support. However, the White Paper’s changes to governance, force structures and national capabilities raise questions about future costs and how funding would be distributed.
The PCCs have questioned how funding would be allocated, including where money reaches Wales through the Barnett formula. This is separate from the cost of devolving policing, which a 2024 review found was unknown and likely to be significant.
There is no consensus on force structure. Evidence to the Welsh Affairs Select Committee supported options ranging from retaining four forces to creating one all-Wales service, with arguments balancing local identity against economies of scale and specialist capacity.
From administrative control to devolution
The evidence and policy proposals point to three possible routes for future policing in Wales:
- Wales-specific administrative governance within the reserved settlement: regional oversight and an all-Wales partnership mechanism could replace PCCs. This is the route most directly opened by the White Paper. It could give Wales greater influence without transferring policing powers.
- Phased or partial devolution: selected functions could transfer while national and specialist policing remained UK-wide. This would require further political agreement and legislation; it is not proposed in the White Paper but fits with the approach suggested by the previous Welsh Government’s 2024 work on preparing for devolution.
- Full legislative and executive devolution: responsibility would transfer to the Senedd and Welsh Government, with agreements on shared services and cross-border operations. This is the Welsh Government’s stated objective, but it is not currently offered by the White Paper.
The White Paper therefore creates an immediate opportunity to design a distinct Welsh system of police governance, particularly after PCCs are abolished. Evidence submitted to the Welsh Affairs Select Committee includes support for closer working with devolved public services, alongside concerns about operational and financial risks.
The White Paper could give Welsh institutions a stronger role in governing policing, but legislative and executive responsibility would remain at Westminster. Partial or full devolution would require separate UK legislation and agreement between the UK and Welsh governments.
Would devolution improve policing?
Witnesses giving evidence to the Welsh Affairs Select Committee Inquiry did not argue that devolution would automatically reduce crime, increase public confidence or address violence against women and girls. Their evidence stressed that these outcomes also depend on prevention, investment and effective partnership working. This reinforces the distinction between changing who is responsible for policing and improving policing outcomes.
The White Paper creates an immediate need for Wales-specific governance after PCCs are abolished. However, devolution remains a separate political and legislative choice. The reforms may open a door to greater Welsh control, but they do not themselves provide the devolved policing model sought by the Welsh Government.
Article by Sarah Hatherley, Senedd Research, Welsh Parliament