The first 2021 Census results were released in June detailing rounded population and household estimates for local authorities in Wales. Census data are adjusted to reflect estimated non-response so published results relate to the entire usually resident population as it was on 21 March 2021. The results are being released by topic themes. Data on demography and migration, UK Armed Forces veterans, ethnic group, national identity, language and religion have already been released. Welsh language data and labour market and travel to work data were released last week. This article looks at the key findings from each of these topics and explains when the remaining data will be published.
Population and household estimates
Our previous article How many people live in Wales? explains the usual resident population of Wales on 21 March 2021 was estimated to be 3,107,500. An increase of 44,000 (1.4%) since the 2011 Census.
Newport (9.5%) had the highest population growth since 2011, followed by Cardiff (4.7%) and Bridgend (4.5%). Seven local authorities experienced population decreases, the largest were Ceredigion (5.8%), Blaenau Gwent (4.2%) and Gwynedd (3.7%).
The number of people in older age groups continues to increase. In 2011, 18.4% (562,544) of the population were aged 65 years or older. In 2021 this had increased to 21.3% (662,000).
Language
2.9 million usual residents aged three years and over spoke English or Welsh as their main language (96.7% of the population). Polish was the most common main language after English or Welsh at 0.7% of the population followed by Arabic (0.3%). British Sign Language (BSL) was the main language of 900 (0.03%) usual residents aged three years and over across Wales.
In Wales people were asked if their main language was anything other than English or Welsh. Therefore, it is not possible to determine how many people in Wales consider Welsh to be their main language. A separate question asks people in Wales about their Welsh language ability.
Welsh language skills in the census are based on a person’s self-assessment of their ability. In some cases, Welsh language ability was reported by another person in the household, usually on behalf of children. In 2021 an estimated 538,300 usual residents in Wales aged three years or older reported being able to speak Welsh (17.8% of the population). This is a decrease of around 23,700 people since the 2011 Census, and 1.2 percentage points lower than 2011. The percentage of people aged three and above able to speak Welsh is the lowest ever recorded in a Census.
The Welsh Government statistical release states:
The decrease in both the number and percentage of people aged three years or older able to speak Welsh is mainly driven by a fall among children and young people who reported as being able to speak Welsh.
The areas with the highest proportions of people aged three years or older able to speak Welsh were Gwynedd (64.4%) and the Isle of Anglesey (55.8%). The percentage of people aged three years or older able to speak Welsh decreased in all local authorities apart from Cardiff, Vale of Glamorgan, Rhondda Cynon Taf and Merthyr Tydfil.
DataMapWales has published an interactive map showing the Welsh Language Change in the percentage of people aged three years or older able to speak Welsh by Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) 2011 to 2021.
Ethnic group
2.9 million usual residents in Wales identified within the ethnic group category ‘White’, 93.8% compared to 95.6% in 2011. 90.6% identified as ‘White: Welsh, English, Scottish, Northern Irish or British’ in 2021. The next largest category in Wales in 2021 was ‘Asian, Asian Welsh or Asian British’ (2.9%), followed by ‘Mixed or multiple ethnic groups (1.6%), ‘Black, Black Welsh, Black British, Caribbean or African’ (0.9%) and ‘Other ethnic group’ (0.9%).
Figure 1: Census maps - ethnicity
Source: ONS, Census Maps - Census 2021 data interactive, ONS
National identity
Over half (55.2%) of the usual residents in Wales identified with a ’Welsh’ only identity, 1.7 million people. This is a decrease from 57.5% in 2011. Local authorities with the largest percentages of ‘Welsh’ only identity included Merthyr Tydfil (70.0%), Rhondda Cynon Taf (69.8%), and Caerphilly (69.2%), while Flintshire (34.7%) had the smallest proportion.
The most common identity amongst people without a UK identity in Wales was Polish (0.7%), followed by Irish (0.3%), Romanian (0.2%) and Indian (0.2%).
Figure 2: Census maps – national identity
Source: ONS, Census Maps - Census 2021 data interactive, ONS
Religion
1.4 million usual residents in Wales reported that they had ‘No religion’ in 2021 . This represent 46.5% of the population compared to 32.1% in 2011. More people reported ‘No religion’ than any single religious affiliation. In England and Wales Caerphilly (56.7%), Blaenau Gwent (56.4%) and Rhondda Cynon Taf (56.2%) had the highest percentages of people reporting ‘no religion’.
43.6% of usual residents (1.4 million) described their religion as ‘Christian’ in 2021. In the 2011 Census over half (57.6%) of residents in Wales identified as ‘Christian’.
Figure 3: Census maps – religion
Source: ONS, Census Maps - Census 2021 data interactive, ONS
Labour market and travel to work
As the 2021 Census took place during the COVID-19 pandemic, lockdown and furlough measures have impacted on the labour market and travel to work data. On 21 March 2021, 1.45 million usual residents aged 16 and over in Wales were economically active (56.5%). 1.11 million were economically inactive (43.5%) of whom 631,700 were retired.
The industry ‘Human health and social work activities’ employed the largest number of usual residents aged 16 and over, 232,700 or 17% of all usual residents aged 16 and over in employment. Manufacturing was the industry that saw the largest decline in employment, employing 118,800 people (8.7% of those in employment) in 2021 compared to 144,600 (10.5%) in 2011.
The 2021 Census also estimated that 350,500 (25.6%) usual residents aged 16 and over in employment in Wales worked mainly at home or from home. This was a lower percentage than in England (31.5%).
Figure 4: Census maps – economic activity status
Source: ONS, Census Maps - Census 2021 data interactive, ONS
UK Armed Forces veterans
The 2021 Census was the first to ask people if they have either previously served in the regular forces, reserve force or both. Around 115,000 people in Wales reported in 2021 they had previously served in the UK armed forces, this represents 4.5% of usual residents aged 16 or older. This is a higher percentage than England where 3.8% (1.7 million) people reported they had previously served in the UK armed forces. Within Wales the following local authorities had the highest proportion of veterans; Conwy (5.9%), Pembrokeshire (5.7%) and the Isle of Anglesey (5.6%).
Figure 5: Census maps – UK Armed Forces veterans
Source: ONS, Census Maps - Census 2021 data interactive, ONS
When can we expect to see further releases?
Further topic summaries on education; housing; health, disability and unpaid care; and sexual orientation and gender identity are due to be released in January 2023, along with data at ward level.
Article by Helen Jones, Senedd Research, Welsh Parliament
