Sentencing policy shapes not only the justice system but also the lives of individuals (including victims and those convicted), families, and communities. Recent evidence has highlighted the limitations of short custodial sentences, which often fail to rehabilitate offenders and instead create cycles of disruption. Research shows that when someone is imprisoned for a few weeks or months, the consequences can be severe — loss of housing, employment, and childcare arrangements, affecting children, partners, and wider social networks.
Research consistently shows that short prison terms rarely reduce reoffending and can even increase it by destabilising lives of offenders without addressing underlying causes such as addiction, mental health issues, or poverty.
At the same time, victims and the public expect justice to reflect the seriousness of offences and provide accountability. Public opinion demands both proportionate sentencing and effective support systems.
The UK Government’s Sentencing Bill, introduced in 2025, seeks to strike this balance by reducing reliance on short custodial sentences and expanding community-based alternatives.
Key changes in the Sentencing Bill
An Independent Sentencing Review, commissioned by the Ministry of Justice found that community-based alternatives — when properly enforced — can deliver punishment, rehabilitation, and public protection more effectively than short custodial terms. These findings underpin three major changes in the UK Government’s Sentencing Bill:
- Presumption against short custody: Courts will generally suspend custodial sentences of 12 months or less instead, replacing them with community-based alternatives. Judges retain discretion to impose custody in exceptional cases, such as where there is a serious risk of harm or repeated breaches of court orders. The principle is: prison should be reserved for offences where no other option can protect the public or uphold justice.
- Strengthening community-based punishments: Community sentences will become more robust and better tailored to individual circumstances, including unpaid work, electronic monitoring, and treatment programmes. A key innovation is the introduction of Intensive Supervision Courts—specialist courts that will combine judicial oversight with rehabilitative interventions to improve compliance and outcomes.
- Earned Progression: This new system will replace the previous automatic release model. Under the Sentencing Bill, prisoners must serve at least 33% of their term before release (or 50% for serious crimes), and early release is earned rather than guaranteed. Progression will depend on good behaviour and engagement with rehabilitation programmes, meaning poor conduct can delay release. This approach seeks to incentivise positive behaviour and reduce the risk of reoffending upon release.
Why this matters for Wales
Criminal justice policy is not devolved, so these reforms apply in Wales. This is significant because sentencing patterns in Wales mirror those in England, with a heavy reliance on short custodial terms.
While the UK Sentencing Bill aims to curb short custodial sentences, the Welsh Government wants to go further—arguing that a fully devolved justice system could dramatically reduce the prison population.
Research by the Wales Governance Centre shows that short prison sentences are common in Wales. Around three-quarters of women receiving immediate custody are sentenced to six months or less. Overall, 68% of custodial sentences in Wales are for less than 12 months—higher than in England. These short sentences, combined with high rates of remand and recall, contribute to rapid turnover in the prison population and place significant administrative and operational strain on the system.
Impact on Women
Women represent only around 4% of the prison population in England and Wales, but short sentences disproportionately affect them. According to the 2024 Factfile, 78% of women sentenced to custody in Wales received 12 months or less, and 24% were sentenced one month or less – a significant increase on previous years.
The Senedd’s Equality and Social Justice Committee report previously identified several factors, based on stakeholder evidence, that make this group particularly vulnerable:
- Disruption and Instability: They found women often receive sentences of one month or less for non-violent offences. Even brief periods in custody can lead to homelessness and family separation, with devastating consequences for children.
- Rising Numbers: Female imprisonment in Wales has increased in recent years.
- Systemic Challenges: Wales has no dedicated women’s prison, weakening family ties and complicating resettlement.
- Additional Concerns: Minority-ethnic women face disproportionate outcomes, and many women in custody have histories of trauma or are mothers. These factors compound the harm caused by short sentences.
Advocates argue that reducing short prison sentences in favour of community-based alternatives could benefit women—but only if community services are properly funded. Both the Equality and Social Justice Committee and the UK Parliament’s Welsh Affairs Select Committee have called for investment in women’s residential centres as part of this approach. Plans for a Swansea centre remain uncertain, despite planning permission and cross-party support.
Challenges and Opportunities
The success of these sentencing reforms is likely to depend on several factors, including:
- Investment: Managing more offenders in the community will require significant resources—an estimated £35.3 million annually and 580 additional probation staff (Sentencing Bill Impact Assessment).
- Judicial Confidence: Courts must trust that community sentences are effective and enforceable. Without this confidence, judges may continue to impose short custodial terms.
- Public Perception: Reforms must balance rehabilitation with accountability to maintain confidence in the justice system.
- Infrastructure: Housing, mental health support, and addiction services are critical. Without them, community sentences risk becoming a revolving door rather than a pathway to rehabilitation.
The Verdict: Will Wales see real change?
Experts—including the Sentencing Council and Criminal Justice Alliance (supported by organisations, such as Clinks and the Howard League) —emphasise that effective implementation, resourcing, and enforcement are essential for these changes to translate into meaningful impact.
In Wales, where short prison sentences are prevalent 68% of custodial sentences are under 12 months — reducing reliance on custody is viewed as a way to break cycles of reoffending, ease pressure on prisons, and improve outcomes for women and other vulnerable groups.
In its 2022 statement, the Welsh Government described short sentences as “counterproductive,” calling for a rights-based, prevention-led approach that redirects savings into mental health, addiction treatment, and housing support. This vision, set out by the Welsh Government, frames justice as part of social justice, highlighting Wales’s ambition to tackle root causes rather than focus on adjusting sentencing mechanics.
However, recent evidence sessions with the Senedd’s Equality and Social Justice Committee revealed tensions between the UK and Welsh Governments on justice matters, including delays in devolving youth justice and probation. Without stronger intergovernmental coordination, the Committee said reforms risk being undermined by gaps in communication and accountability.
Forthcoming sentencing reform under the Sentencing Bill is not simply a technical adjustment—it signals a fundamental rethink of how justice is delivered. For Wales, the stakes are high.
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This article is part of a series exploring key aspects of criminal justice in Wales, from the current devolution settlement and intergovernmental working, to probation, youth justice policy, and policing. |
Article by Sarah Hatherley, Senedd Research, Welsh Parliament
