Reducing the NHS waiting list backlog

In April 2022, the Welsh Government published its plan to transform and modernise planned care, aiming to reduce waiting lists in Wales.

Recognising that addressing backlogs in routine care takes times, the Welsh Government committed to the following five key ambitions:

• Ambition 1: No one waiting longer than a year for their first outpatient appointment by the end of 2022
• Ambition 2: Eliminate waits longer than two years in most specialties by March 2023
• Ambition 3: Eliminate waits longer than one year in most specialties by Spring 2025
• Ambition 4: Speed up diagnostic testing and reporting to eight weeks, and therapy interventions to 14 weeks, by Spring 2024
• Ambition 5: Ensure cancer diagnosis and treatment within 62 days for 80% of people by 2026

Senedd Research has been tracking progress against these ambitions, providing regular updates, and termly reports to the Senedd Health and Social Care Committee.

So far, the Welsh Government hasn’t achieved any of its ambitions.

Are the Welsh Government going to reach their ambitions?

Data on NHS waiting times are published every month on StatsWales.

The data show the number of patient pathways rather than the number of patients and one patient can be on several pathways. Each pathway covers the time from referral by a GP or other medical practitioner to hospital for treatment in the NHS in Wales. This includes time spent waiting for hospital appointments, tests, scans or other procedures that may be needed before treatment.

The data shows the number of patient pathways waiting longer than 53 weeks rather than longer than one year and the number of people waiting longer than 105 weeks rather than longer than two years.

The graphs below show data from January 2020 to the latest available.

Click on the boxes to see other ambitions Ambition 1: No one waiting longer than a year for their first outpatient appointment by the end of 2022 In September 2024, 79,855 patient pathways were waiting over 53 weeks (more than a year) for their first out-patient appointment. Source: StatsWales, Patient pathways waiting to start treatment by month, grouped weeks and stage of pathway Ambition 2: Eliminate the number of people waiting longer than two years in most specialties by March 2023 In September 2024, 5,832 patient pathways were waiting over 105 weeks (more than two years) for ophthalmology treatments, 5,072 for trauma and orthopaedic treatments and 2,438 for general surgery. Source: StatsWales, Patient pathways waiting to start treatment by month, grouped weeks and treatment function, January 2021 onwards Ambition 3: Eliminate the number of people waiting longer than one year in most specialties by Spring 2025 In September 2024, 38,073 patient pathways were waiting over 53 weeks (more than a year) for ophthalmology treatment, 31,397 for trauma and orthopaedic and 20,469 for general surgery treatments. Source: StatsWales, Patient pathways waiting to start treatment by month, grouped weeks and treatment function, January 2021 onwards Ambition 4: Increase the speed of diagnostic testing and reporting to eight weeks and 14 weeks for therapy interventions by Spring 2024 In September 2024, 43,289 patient pathways were waiting 8 weeks or more for diagnostic services. A further 5,798 patient pathways were waiting over 14 weeks for therapy services. Source: StatsWales, Diagnostic and therapy services waiting times by month Ambition 5: Cancer diagnosis and treatment to be undertaken within 62 days for 80% of people by 2026 In September 2024, 55.0% of people who received a cancer diagnosis started their first definitive treatment within 62 days from the first point cancer was suspected. Source: StatsWales, Suspected cancer pathway (closed pathways): The number of pathways where the patient started their first definitive treatment and those informed they do not have cancer by local health board, tumour site, age group, sex, measure and month

Article by Sarah Hatherley, Helen Jones and Joe Wilkes, Senedd Research, Welsh Parliament