As the world begins to feel the effects of the conflict in the Middle East, the Welsh Government has made further remarks on steps it’s taking to mitigate them.
On 3 March, the First Minister issued a written statement, which said:
…if the conflict endures it could have real consequences for households and businesses in Wales.
Two days later, the Cabinet Secretary for Economy, Energy and Planning, Rebecca Evans MS (“Cabinet Secretary”) told the Economy, Trade and Rural Affairs (ETRA) Committee that:
At the moment, the picture is very unclear in the sense that we don't know how long the conflict will last and how broad the conflict will be. […] If things are resolved very quickly, then the impact will obviously be much less severe.
By 17 March, the First Minister had concluded that that “the impact is real, and it's happening already.”
This article provides an update on Welsh Government statements on aspects of the conflict. It follows on from our article, First Minister says Iran conflict “has a ripple effect” for Wales, published on 3 March.
On 17 March, the First Minister said of UK-US relations that:
I'm very pleased to see that the UK Prime Minister is resisting pressure from the US President to get more involved in that war, but let's be clear, this war is going to affect us—it already is, and already the people of Wales are struggling with cost-of-living pressures.
We need to see de-escalation, and I know that the responsibility of the Prime Minister is to put our country first. I'm really pleased that lessons have been learned from the Iraq war.
In a written statement on 3 March, the First Minister said:
We will continue to work with the UK Government and partners to understand and mitigate any effects on people, services and businesses in Wales.
On 5 March, the Deputy First Minister, Huw Irranca-Davies MS, told ETRA Committee that discussions were taking place “at the highest level”, and that the First Minister was receiving regular updates from the Cabinet Office.
Appearing alongside the Deputy First Minister, the Cabinet Secretary stated that the “links across Governments are really strong”. The Deputy First Minister explained that “we regularly meet as a quad of ministers” to monitor developments, and with EU partners due to the potential repercussions on global supply chains.
On 5 March, the Deputy First Minister confirmed that the First Minister is “always the point person in terms of COBRA and in terms of resilience matters”.
Also on 5 March, the Cabinet Secretary advised that:
Clearly, at the moment, it's a case of preparing for all kinds of eventualities and having those discussions to make sure that those plans are in place.
Obviously, Welsh Government, UK Government, we all have tried and tested emergency and civil contingency procedures in place to deal with unexpected shocks.
She pointed to COVID and the war in Ukraine as having “built up our ability to be resilient and to respond quickly to things”.
On 3 March in Plenary, the First Minister said that,
There are many Welsh people who have been caught up in the situation—some working there, some on holiday. The safety of our loved ones is absolutely paramount, and that's where we've been focusing our attention.
She added that the Welsh Government was monitoring disruption to air travel. On 5 March, the Deputy First Minister confirmed that:
…our officials are engaging with their UK counterparts overseas, including, I have to say, in this very dangerous moment, making sure that the welfare of citizens of Wales and British citizens is looked after as well.
The Welsh Government’s Middle East and North Africa (MENA) team is based across two offices in Dubai (UAE), and Doha (Qatar). Both offices are located inside British Embassies.
The First Minister confirmed on 3 March that all Welsh Government officials in the region were “accounted for and … safe and well.”
On 5 March, the Deputy First Minister added that:
We have regular welfare check-ins with our staff overseas, but they will engage with their UK Government counterparts as well. So, we have a proper joined-up analysis of what's going on. But also paramount at the moment, I have to say, is their safety and well-being themselves as well.
For the latest trade statistics between Wales and states involved in the conflict, see our previous article.
Following a 4 March meeting of the Interministerial Group for Trade, the Cabinet Secretary updated that the UK’s trade ministers had discussed potential trade impacts, including:
… the importance of making sure that we're ready for any eventuality, given how uncertain things are at the moment, and the way in which things could play out, both in terms of the breadth of the conflict, but then also the timescale of the conflict.
The Cabinet Secretary later confirmed that the Welsh Government’s Trade Policy Advisory Group would meet on 12 March.
On 3 March, the First Minister issued a written statement, which said:
A further rise in energy costs would impact household budgets through higher petrol and domestic heating prices, with potential knock‑on effects for consumer confidence and the wider retail economy.
This in turn could drive inflation higher, keeping interest rates elevated for longer and prolonging existing cost‑of‑living pressures.
On 5 March, the Cabinet Secretary said that the impact on energy was “one of the immediate concerns, which has been raised frequently”, and that:
…on domestic energy bills, certainly there'll be no immediate impact, and that's because the [energy price] cap was set just before the conflict began. So, that was set for the next three months, with prices actually down 7 per cent for the next three months.
And that:
The situation around energy was much more pronounced, for example, when Russia invaded Ukraine, and we were able to respond quickly there to support households in particular.
On 11 March, the Cabinet Secretary responded to a topical question from Sioned Williams MS on the conflict’s cost of living implications. The Member raised concerns for the 110,000 (7%) of households in Wales reliant on heating fuel not protected by the price cap. The Cabinet Secretary advised she’d also been contacted by constituents, saying that:
…the issue at the moment is an issue around price volatility rather than supply. However, we do know that some suppliers are holding back supply with the aim of profiteering as a result of that.
She reiterated that:
… the cross-Government working at the moment is very good with the UK Government in terms of sharing intelligence and in terms of trying to make sure that the industry itself acts responsibly.
and concluded that the Welsh Government is:
… planning for a range of outcomes depending on how wide the conflict goes and how long it lasts. But to echo the points that were made, we all absolutely hope for a speedy resolution.
In written statement on 12 March, the Cabinet Secretary described questions put to the UK Government by the First Minister on the conflict’s implications for energy.
On 15 March, the UK Government announced £53 million support for heating oil costs. Wales will received £3.8m, Northern Ireland £17m, England £27m and Scotland £4.6m.
On 17 March, the First Minister said in Plenary:
Petrol prices at the pumps are already going up. I am particularly concerned, as you are, about these people who are dependent on oil.
The other people are protected, at least for now,through the price cap. Let me be clear though, that we already have a discretionary assistance fund, and the Fuel Bank Foundation, and people are able to access money there already via their local authorities.
That £3.8 million […] I had the opportunity to speak to the Prime Minister last week about the need to recognise that more people in Wales, proportionately, are dependent on oil for heating their homes. That's been recognised in the amount of money we get proportionately, and that money will now be available to top up what we as a Government already put in.
The Cabinet Secretary for Social Justice, Trefnydd and Chief Whip, Jane Hutt, later confirmed that the Welsh Government had worked with the UK Government to ensure that “the money was based on the number of homes dependent on heating oil, not based on the Barnett formula”. She said that she would say more on the topic in the next 24 hours.
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The Welsh Government is urging anyone worried about the price of heating their homes to contact its free Nest energy advice service for help and support. The Welsh Government says this service can also signpost to other help such as Welsh Government’s Discretionary Assistance Fund and the Fuel Bank Foundation who provide one off payments for fuel for those in need. |
Both the Cabinet Secretary and the Deputy First Minister raised the prospect of price increases in evidence to ETRA Committee on 5 March. The Deputy First Minister summarised that:
…we are starting to see those concerning signs of the escalation in input prices, fertiliser, feeds, and so on. But we don't know where it will go.
On 16 March, the Legislation, Justice and Constitution Committee considered a letter from the Cabinet Secretary for Housing and Local Government, Jayne Bryant MS, advising of changes to housing regulations.
The proposed changes would provide an exemption from the ‘habitual residence test’ for eligible persons from the region, who need to access housing accommodation or assistance on arrival. Eligible persons are British nationals or persons, subject to immigration control, who have been given leave to enter or remain in the UK with access to public funds.
Jayne Bryant MS explained that this:
will allow people fleeing crises an opportunity to seek housing or homelessness assistance in Wales without undue delay.
The Welsh Government has taken similar action previously, including in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza conflict. As Jayne Bryant MS explains, however, this situation is different:
In previous crises, the Welsh Government has made region specific amendments to the regulations; this method provided clarity because the evacuation related to a single, defined location and a clearly identified cohort.
This is not the case with the current situation. The present conflict is dispersed across several countries, and the scope may widen or change quickly. As a result, it is not possible to identify with confidence which countries should be cited in regulations, or whether those choices would remain accurate even in the short term.
It is therefore our intention to create a “General Crisis” waiver from the habitual residency test that will be activated if and when the Foreign Office issues “leave now” advice to British Nationals and those with leave to remain in the UK with access to public funds, anywhere in the world.
The proposal would be limited to applications received within six months of the date of the “leave now” advice, or from the first day of an evacuation from the region, whichever is later; and will sunset one year after the amendments come into force.
Article by Sara Moran, Senedd Research, Welsh Parliament
