This September the default speed limit on restricted roads in Wales will reduce from 30mph to 20mph. It’s the first national scheme of its kind in the UK.
The Deputy Minister for Climate Change says this will play an “integral part” in meeting modal shift targets set out in the Wales Transport Strategy. He says it will make communities safer while helping to reduce our environmental impact.
This article looks at what’s happening and the reaction to the change as Wales gears up for implementation.
Which roads will the new default apply to?
30mph is the current default speed limit for the majority of our urban and residential streets, known as ‘restricted roads’. These are defined as roads with streetlights no more than 200 yards apart.
From 17 September 2023 this default limit will change to 20mph after the Senedd passed the Restricted Roads (20 mph Speed Limit) (Wales) Order 2022(the Order).
While the default limit will change, highway authorities (local authorities for local roads and the Welsh Ministers for trunk roads/motorways) can use Traffic Regulation Orders (TROs) to increase the limit where appropriate. These will be known as exceptions.
Work to set exceptions to the new default is already underway. Welsh Government guidance sets out that highway authorities must consider how roads are used by pedestrians and cyclists, and whether they mix with traffic when considering exceptions.
An interactive map is available showing where draft TROs are being prepared to exempt roads.
What impact do 20mph limits have?
In 2018, the Welsh Government asked Dr Adrian Davis to review the evidence that reducing urban speed limits can reduce collisions. The review concluded there is “moderate to strong” evidence that casualties are reduced as a result of 20mph limits, although evidence on issues such as improving air quality was weak.
The Welsh Government’s 2019 task force on the issue found “overwhelming evidence” that lower speeds result in fewer, and less severe, collisions. The task force also suggested that:
…reductions in the perception of road danger is expected to lead to more walking and cycling which will improve public health and replace some short car journeys…More walking and cycling is also likely to lead to greater social cohesion which brings further societal and health benefits.
Conversely, the UK Government’s 2018 research on the effectiveness of 20mph limits found:
…there is insufficient evidence to conclude that there has been a significant change in collisions and casualties following the introduction of 20mph limits in residential areas…
Research from Queen’s University points to the distinction between 20mph zones, where traffic calming measures are in place, and 20mph limits enforced only by signage – as is being rolled out across Wales. It found that while there was clear evidence 20mph zones reduced the frequency and severity of collisions and casualties, there was a lack of evidence on the effectiveness of 20mph limits.
In 2022, Public Health Wales (PHW) commissioned research which estimates the new 20mph default limit could save more than 100 lives over a decade.
Piloting the approach
Pilots have taken place in eight communities across Wales to trial 20mph default limits in the lead up to the national roll-out. The first monitoring report on the impact was published in March.
The report recognises that data is limited and the conclusions drawn from the trials are “tentative”, but overall speeds have reduced in these areas. There has also been more active travel to schools within trial areas compared to others monitored. The impact on journey times is described as a “marginal increase”, while no material impact on air quality has been identified.
On one particular pilot area – Buckley in Flintshire - the Deputy Minister recently told the media the approach taken “didn’t work”. He outlined that in Buckley:
…the decision was made not to have any of what we call ‘exceptions.’ So, the 20mph speed limit was applied to the whole area, rather than only some parts…that approach didn’t work.
It’s been a useful learning experience, and that’s the point of the pilot…it didn’t work, we got it wrong, and we are going to change.
The Explanatory Memorandum (the EM) to the Order says monitoring in the pilot areas will continue after the national roll-out, with additional areas added and annual reporting on the impact taking place.
Has the policy been supported?
It’s fair to say the policy is not universally supported. While the change has been welcomed by organisations such as Sustrans and Living Streets, the public reaction has been mixed. This week will see the Senedd debate a petition calling on the Welsh Government to stop the implementation of 20mph limits that received over 21,000 signatures.
Back in November 2020, the Welsh Government undertook a national survey which found strong support for its plans (81%), especially among parents. Formal consultation was also undertaken in 2021 although on this occasion 53% of respondents were against the policy. Some of the reasons given included longer journey times and increased congestion.
The potential of increased journey times is a concern for the bus industry, which has also been facing huge funding pressures – although fears of wholesale service cuts have been somewhat eased by the announcement of additional funding. The first monitoring report from pilot areas shows the impact on bus journey times has been mixed.
A WLGA letter to the First Minister on the issue of bus funding also drew attention to the “sheer volume” of transport policy changes requiring action by local authorities. These include the 20mph speed limit roll out and the impact of the roads review, with the situation being described as “a perfect storm”.
Questions have also been raised over the economic impact of the change. The EM suggests:
…the main economic dis-benefit relates to increased journey times from lower average vehicle speeds…this could bring a substantial economic dis-benefit, with a central estimate of £6.4 billion…over 30 years.
The Deputy Minister says “the idea that being a minute later to get to school harms the economy, I just don't believe it, so I think the figures are discredited”.
The EM estimates the total direct financial cost of implementing the change to be £32.5 million. It remains to be seen whether this covers the full costs of transition. During the Climate Change, Environment and Infrastructure Committee’s scrutiny of the Welsh Government’s 2023-24 draft budget, the Deputy Minister referred to the research commissioned by PHW that estimates:
…in the first year alone…it’ll save public services £100 million…—three times the cost of introducing it…from reduced pressures on the NHS.
Where to find out more?
The Welsh Government has published a list of FAQs on its website where you can find more detail as September’s national roll-out moves closer.
Article by Francesca Howorth, Senedd Research, Welsh Parliament
