As autumnal colours set in across Wales, some people will be worrying about how to heat their home this winter.
Typical UK household energy bills remain 43% above their winter 2021/22 levels and latest figures show 25% of Welsh households in fuel poverty.
Last winter the Equality and Social Justice Committee undertook a fuel poverty inquiry, and published its recommendations in April 2025.
The Welsh Government published an update on its actions to tackle fuel poverty in June.
This article examines some of the issues raised during the inquiry, ahead of the Senedd debate on the Committee’s report, on 17 September 2025.
New fuel poverty estimates published
The Welsh Government defines fuel poverty as not being able to maintain a satisfactory heating regime at an affordable cost. It says fuel poor households are those needing to pay more than 10% of their full household income to maintain a satisfactory heating regime.
During the inquiry the latest Welsh Government fuel poverty statistics available were for 2021 (published in August 2024) and showed 14% of Welsh households in fuel poverty, 3% in severe fuel poverty, and 11% at risk of fuel poverty.
Stakeholders were concerned the statistics were too old and called for up-to-date and more detailed data.
National Energy Action Cymru said the percentage of fuel poor households in Wales rose sharply from 14% in October 2021 to 45% in April 2022, with 8% living in severe fuel poverty.
New headline estimates were indeed published in August and estimated that (in October 2024) 25% of Welsh households were in fuel poverty, 5% in severe fuel poverty, and 16% at risk of fuel poverty – a significant increase on the previous figures. The Welsh Government is due to publish detailed analysis i in October.
Stakeholders call for interim targets
The Welsh Government’s plan to tackle fuel poverty between 2021 and 2035 aims to meet three principle targets by 2035:
- no households are estimated to be living in severe or persistent fuel poverty as far as reasonable practicable;
- not more than 5% of households are estimated to be living in fuel poverty at any one time as far as reasonably practicable; and
- the number of all households “at risk” of falling into fuel poverty will be more than halved based on the 2018 estimate.
Stakeholders highlighted the need for interim targets to help monitor progress, and for the plan to be updated.
The Welsh Government said it would work with the Fuel Poverty Advisory Panel to develop interim targets once it had published the updated fuel poverty estimates.
The Welsh Government’s June update says actions in the plan to tackle fuel poverty have been updated and reiterates that interim targets will be developed following publication of the revised estimates.
Teething problems for the new Warm Home Programme
The Warm Homes Programme is the Welsh Government’s “primary mechanism to tackle fuel poverty, to reduce the number of low-income households living in cold, damp homes.”
The Welsh Government launched a revised Warm Homes Programme in April 2024, following a review of the previous programme. The review took into account recommendations made by the Auditor General in 2021 and the ESJ Committee in 2022.
The previous programme comprised both Nest (a needs based scheme) and Arbed (an area based scheme that ended in 2021). The new Nest scheme includes eligibility and other changes, and retains some features, including:
- a new low income threshold for eligibility, rather than means tested benefits;
- a ‘Whole House Assessment’ for eligible households;
- a ‘fabric first’ approach - heating and ventilation measures would be available only when the thermal efficiency of the dwelling has been improved to a satisfactory standard to accommodate them;
- low carbon technologies prioritised “where it makes sense to do so”; and
- an increased budget cap per household to enable “deeper retrofits”.
Stakeholders identified teething problems including Nest caseworkers not understanding the new eligibility criteria, referrals getting lost and the time taken for contractors to obtain the accreditations required to deliver the retrofits.
Care & Repair expressed concern about too much focus on installing low-carbon technology rather than identifying the best option for the person and how they live in their home. Examples were given of eligible households being turned away if the home wasn’t suitable for an air source heat pump, or installed heat pumps being ineffective because of insufficient insulation or the customer not understanding how to use them properly.
The Cabinet Secretary for Housing and Local Government, Jayne Bryant MS, noted it was not the intention to turn away householders whose homes are unsuitable for a heat pump, and stressed that Nest installs other measures including solar, double glazing, ventilation and insulation.
The Cabinet Secretary said it was inevitable some customers would be unhappy but complaints were less than 1% of the numbers the scheme has supported, below the 3% target. She said, according to the Nest end-of-call survey, the customer service is “rated first class, and world class”.
Calls for an area-based scheme
Stakeholders also called for a replacement area-based scheme, as did the ESJ Committee in its previous report. Warm Wales said an area-based approach was cheaper, quicker and would support more properties.
The Welsh Government said it was reviewing Nest’s progress and would then turn attention to potential small area-based activity, such as for blocks of flats and terraced housing. The two elements were not being run concurrently to allow lessons learnt from the new Nest scheme to be applied to a new area based scheme.
The June update says the Welsh Government is working to develop an area-based approach across all tenures and income levels to drive decarbonisation and reduce fuel poverty.
Significantly more funding needed
The Welsh Government’s Budget 2025-26 allocates £37.5m capital funding to the Warm Homes Programme, an increase of 7% from the previous year.
Stakeholders say the level of funding is inadequate, given the scale of fuel poverty. The Bevan Foundation projected that at if the current pace of work were followed until all fuel-poor households in Wales had received improvements, the Warm Homes Programme wouldn’t finish its work until the year 2160.
The Welsh Government emphasised it has increased the budget cap per household to enable deeper retrofits and amended the eligibility criteria to target the least well off, by introducing the low-income threshold.
The Welsh Government acknowledged that more expensive, deeper retrofits will affect the number of households supported - it anticipated supporting 1,500 householders a year through the Warm Homes Programme, compared with an average of 4,000 under the previous Nest scheme.
More could be done
The Committee examined other issues including maximising UK-wide schemes like the Energy Company Obligation to increase support for households, and better use of fuel poverty mapping systems like FRESH vulnerability mapping, developed by Cardiff University and Warm Wales.
You can read more about these issues and see the Committee’s recommendations in its report: Turning up the heat before 2160: time to pick up the pace on tackling fuel poverty
The Welsh Government’s response to the recommendations was published in May.
Tune in to Senedd TV on 17 September to watch the debate.
Senedd Research has published: Support for households with energy bills and fuel poverty - a guide for constituents.
Article by Elfyn Henderson Senedd Research, Welsh Parliament.
