Over the past decade, a growing body of research has examined how criminal justice operates in Wales and why it often struggles to deliver consistent, equitable outcomes. Much of this work points to the same structural issues: Wales sits between devolved and reserved powers, producing what academics at the Wales Governance Centre have described as a “jagged edge” of split responsibilities. This arrangement relies on close co-operation between the UK and Welsh governments.
The case for devolution
Across the Thomas Commission (2019), the Brown Commission (2022) and the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (2024), a consistent case has been made that devolving justice could enable better outcomes by aligning justice policy with devolved services such as health, housing, and education. These bodies argue that the current England-and-Wales system creates fragmented accountability and inhibits coherent action, particularly around prevention and rehabilitation.
The Welsh Government reinforces this view in its Delivering Justice for Wales progress report (2024), expressing the ambition for a more integrated “Welsh way” of delivering justice.
Research from the Wales Governance Centre highlights persistent issues, particularly in remand, sentencing, and unequal outcomes, that they argue stem from structural misalignment within the current settlement.
The case against devolution
However, concerns about the practicality and risks of justice devolution remain central to UK Government thinking. Lord Timpson’s evidence to the Senedd Equality and Social Justice Committee in July 2025 highlighted that the justice system is under “huge pressures,” and he argued that stability should come before constitutional change. He noted that probation services are already “bruised” from previous reforms, and warned that major structural shifts could deepen this instability. He also cautioned that such changes risk becoming “sticking plasters” rather than delivering lasting improvements.
The UK Government has similarly argued that devolving justice may reduce efficiency and increase costs, and analysis of fiscal implications points to significant financial exposure for Wales, with around £1.2 billion in annual justice spending transferring alongside substantial set‑up and administrative demands.
Independent analysis similarly warns that further constitutional change could exacerbate existing complexities: policing research has shown that partial devolution creates operational challenges, while the Law Society has stressed that poorly planned or underfunded justice devolution carries “significant risk,” and that moves toward a separate jurisdiction would be especially high‑risk.
Taken together, these perspectives raise questions about whether major structural reform would deliver the intended benefits, or instead introduce new uncertainty into an already stretched system.
The Criminal Justice Series
The Criminal Justice in Wales series published by Senedd Research set out to provide insight into how the criminal justice system in Wales currently works across prisons, youth justice, sentencing, probation, courts, policing, and victims’ services. It has highlighted where evidence is strong, where progress has been made, and where gaps remain. The series also makes clear that key areas such as family justice, housing, Violence Against Women, Domestic Abuse and Sexual Violence (VAWDASV), and substance misuse — while outside its immediate scope — are central to understanding how justice operates in Wales.
Across all parts of the series, one message stands out: criminal justice cannot be separated from the wider public services that shape people’s lives. Policing, courts, probation, and prisons depend on the effectiveness of education, health, housing, and social care. When one part of the system changes, the effects are felt across many others.
Taken together, the evidence does not point towards a single conclusion about the future of justice arrangements in Wales. Instead, it highlights the complexity of the system, the interdependence of its parts, and the different ways in which structural, operational, and constitutional factors can influence outcomes.
By setting out these issues clearly, the series is intended to provide a foundation for informed debate. It leaves the question open for Members, stakeholders, and the public to consider: in light of the evidence, what kind of justice system best serves Wales, and how should responsibilities be arranged to achieve it?
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This article is part of a series exploring key aspects of criminal justice in Wales, from the current devolution settlement and intergovernmental working, to probation, youth justice policy, and policing. |
Article by Sarah Hatherley, Senedd Research, Welsh Parliament
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