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Note: EU, EEA-EFTA and Swiss nationals and their family members are eligible for the EU Settlement Scheme. Irish nationals are exempt. For ease, this article uses the term “EU citizens” to describe this group. |
On Wednesday 6 November, the Senedd will debate the challenges EU citizens continue to face almost four years since the UK left the EU.
EU citizens who lived in Wales before Brexit must have applied to the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) to stay. The Equality and Social Justice Committee’s (“the Committee”) second annual EUSS report is the focus of the debate, which is summarised in another article. The latest statistics can be found in the Committee’s September monitoring report.
Chair Jenny Rathbone MS told witnesses their Committee evidence:
provides some clarity as to what we need to do to prevent this turning into yet another Windrush scandal, which would just cause huge untold agony, as well as a lot of cost.
This article explains why the EUSS has led to warnings of “a second Windrush”.
How did we get here?
During Brexit, separation agreements (including the UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement) were reached between the UK, the EU and the non-EU countries of Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland. The agreements guarantee the rights of EU citizens living in the UK before Brexit, and vice versa.
The UK Government launched the EUSS in October 2019 for EU citizens to apply to stay. The application deadline was 30 June 2021 but it remains open for late applications.
Successful applicants are granted either a permanent ‘settled’ status (for those who can prove they’ve lived here for five years) or a temporary ‘pre-settled’ status (for those who can’t). When pre-settled citizens have this proof, they can upgrade to settled status.
Both groups can live, work and access healthcare but there are important differences. For example, pre-settled citizens may not be able to access benefits and their family members can’t join them.
Developments since Brexit
There have been 8.1 million applications to the EUSS, which is the UK’s first digital-only visa system. 124,642 applications came from Wales. 108,666 can stay, either permanently or temporarily (the remainder could be awaiting a decision, or could be duplicate, refused, withdrawn or void applications).
Committee witnesses agreed that, for those with digital, administrative and English language skills, the EUSS has been straightforward. But, Cambridge University’s Fiona Costello, said that:
it's very important to remember those who are more vulnerable, for whom the EUSS has been a challenge and is still a challenge, and they include younger people, older people, children in care or who are looked after, other people with care needs, the Roma community, people who are homeless, victims of domestic abuse, et cetera.
Under 18s make up 17.5% (21,809) of applications from Wales while around 3% (3,681) are from those aged 65+. Ethnicity isn’t recorded but Settled said that the Roma are “the vulnerable category that we do the most support with in Wales”.
The 40,254 pre-settled citizens in Wales may also need to apply again for settled status, unless they’re upgraded automatically as part of changes announced in 2023.
Echoes of Windrush?
Failure to obtain status can lead to the loss of rights to work, housing, education and benefits, and even deportation. Settled said that a lack of awareness amongst landlords, employers, local authorities and statutory services has also resulted in services being denied, even for status holders.
Such examples have led to comparisons with the Windrush scandal, where people who arrived in the UK legally from Caribbean countries between 1948-1971 were later denied access to services, and were wrongly detained, deported and denied their rights despite being entitled to permanently live and work here. Proving residency and a lack of documentation were hallmarks of Windrush and are echoed in the EUSS.
The Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper, described the EUSS as “Windrush on steroids” in 2019, a view supported by immigration barrister, Colin Yeo. In evidence to the Committee, Settled, the3million, Cambridge University’s Fiona Costello, and the EU citizens’ rights watchdog, the Independent Monitoring Authority voiced their concerns.
Like Windrush, the EUSS places the burden of proof on individuals to prove residency but some lack the necessary documentation. 2019 analyses by social sector think tank, NPC, and British Future showed that the numbers of citizens caught up in a potential EUSS scandal could be on a much larger scale than those involved in Windrush:
If just 5% of the [then] estimated 3.5m EU citizens living in the UK do not register by the deadline, 175,000 people would be left without status.
Building a digital footprint to prove residency isn’t straightforward for some groups, like children. A lack of digital literacy combined with language barriers add to this mix.
The former UK Government announced in April 2024 that physical immigration documents will be gradually phased out by 2025.
Generational implications
The Brexit separation agreements guarantee the rights of children of status holders so issues could emerge long into the future. Settled explained this means:
it may well be a generation until the children of the current EU citizens have grown up before we can be assured that everybody who needed to sort out their status has done it, and is able to use the digital scheme to demonstrate it.
Nobody knows how many EU citizens lived in the UK before Brexit, so we don’t know how many applications to expect. This remains the case today. Initial estimates showed 95,000 eligible citizens in Wales but there have already been over 124,000 applications. UK-wide, applications total over 8.1 million against estimates of between 3-4 million.
Fiona Costello told the Committee that:
it's important to take that long-term view of the EUSS in order to avoid a Windrush situation in the future for future generations.
Settled explained how some EU citizens who’ve lived here for decades don’t realise they need to apply. They now face narrowed eligibility criteria because of recent changes to the EUSS. There have been 537-808 late applications from Wales each month in 2024.
Avoiding a second Windrush
Committee witnesses suggested steps to alleviate EUSS issues, which the Committee has documented with increasing concern since 2021.
Settled said a lack of EUSS awareness is “probably one of the biggest problems that we're facing in Wales”. It hopes that the Committee and Senedd Members can help raise awareness. Sustainable funding could also guarantee long-term certainty and support to organisations offering EUSS help. Existing UK Government and Welsh Government funding runs until March 2025.
The Migration Observatory spoke of a sense that “the EUSS will gradually go away”. Committee witnesses said the misconception, that the need for support is decreasing, must be tackled. The3million warned that:
the problems that we're finding out about are probably just the tip of the iceberg.
It’s a “long-term generation-long issue” added Settled, and witnesses all hoped governments recognise this.
“We’re all concerned” says independent watchdog
The Committee’s had regular exchanges with the Welsh Government since its EUSS work began in 2021. And while successive Ministers have spoken of the importance of supporting EU citizens in Wales, most recently in June 2024, the EUSS hasn’t been itemised on a cabinet portfolio since March 2024.
The EUSS is here to stay, and, according to the Committee’s evidence, is causing serious problems for some of Wales’s most vulnerable people. In the words of the Migration Observatory, “these problems will continue to be here for a very long time”.
On 16 September, the Independent Monitoring Authority (IMA), left the Committee in no doubt:
We’re all concerned about that risk of Windrush.
The Committee tabled this debate for Senedd Members to discuss: are Wales’s EU citizens at risk of “a second Windrush”?
You can watch live or on catch up on Senedd.TV (Wednesday 6 November).
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If you have been affected by the issues raised in this article, Settled offers free, accredited advice on the EUSS in a wide variety of European languages. You can contact Settled via their online referral form, email or helpline: 0330 223 5336. |
Article by Sara Moran, Senedd Research, Welsh Parliament
