Prison expansion in Wales is not just driven by Welsh prisoner numbers, but by wider pressures across the prison system in England and Wales. This article explores some of the factors behind the steady increase in prison capacity in Wales, and the wider implications for rehabilitation and justice policy.
Overcapacity, under control?
The prison estate in England and Wales is under severe strain. At the end of July 2025, the prison population stood at 87,966., with the estate operating at 98.4% of its usable capacity – a level considered critically high by the Ministry of Justice.
Following the 2024 general election, the new UK Government warned the prison system was “on the point of collapse”. The then Lord Chancellor, Shabana Mahmood MP, stated “our prisons were within weeks of overflowing”.
In response, the UK Government launched a Sentencing Review chaired by former Justice Secretary David Gauke, and introduced emergency measures such as shortening the time people serve in prison for standard sentences - from half of the sentence to 40% of it. It also committed to creating 14,000 additional prison places by 2031, including the proposed expansion of HMP Parc, operated by G4S in Bridgend. (HMP Parc has recently faced increased scrutiny following an inspection report which raised concerns over safety and 17 inmate deaths in 2024, many linked to drug-related causes).
Concerns about expanding prison capacity in Wales have been raised by several experts. Dr Robert Jones of the Wales Governance Centre has previously warned that surplus prison places in Wales are likely to be filled by prisoners from England. In June 2025, Welsh prisons housed 1,737 prisoners from England – around a third of the total Welsh prison population of 5,300.
Dr Iolo Madoc-Jones, Dr Wulf Livingston and Dr Caroline Hughes of Wrexham Glyndwr University have called for more investment in rehabilitation services. They argue that simply expanding the prison estate won’t fix the deeper issue – of people leaving prison without the support they need to rebuild their lives. They say without help with housing, employment, health or addiction issues, many struggle to reintegrate and are more likely to reoffend and return to prison.
Does Wales need more prison places?
Wales has the highest imprisonment rate in Western Europe, with 177 Welsh residents in prison per 100,000 of the Welsh population as of September 2023—more than double the Western European average of 83. This high rate is not explained by higher crime levels, suggesting other factors are at play.
Evidence submitted to the House of Commons Welsh Affairs Committee inquiry, ‘Prisons, Probation and Rehabilitation’, highlights this disparity. Clinks (a charity that supports voluntary organisations working with people in the criminal justice system) cited research by Dr Robert Jones showing that in 2019, 149 Welsh residents were in prison per 100,000 of the Welsh population, compared to 136 per 100,000 in England. Based on 2023 figures, Wales now ranks highest in Western Europe.
Dr Jones has also raised concerns about the distance many Welsh prisoners are held from home. In 2017, 39% of adult male Welsh prisoners were held in English prisons, across 108 different facilities. By June 2025, this had increased to 43%.
Wales currently has around 5,588 prison places across five adult male prisons. If all Welsh prisoners were held in Wales, there could be a surplus of over 700 places—about 12.5% of total capacity. In contrast, the combined England and Wales prison estate operates close to full capacity, with a surplus of less than 2%.
However, these figures only tell part of the story. Decisions about where prisoners are held aren’t based only on population figures. Other factors—like overcrowding, access to specialist services, and safety concerns—also play a role.
Who holds the power?
The release of disaggregated Welsh prison data enables more accurate analysis of the relationship between crime and imprisonment in Wales.
Unlike in Scotland and Northern Ireland, criminal justice is not devolved. Instead, the UK Ministry of Justice retains control over sentencing policy and prison commissioning for both England and Wales. This shared jurisdiction has significant implications.
While the Welsh Government controls key services that support rehabilitation—such as housing, health, and education—it has no authority over sentencing or prison construction. This disconnect can lead to different priorities, where prison expansion may not reflect Welsh social policy goals.
Efforts to bridge the gap include the work of the Criminal Justice Board and the Youth and Women Justice Blueprints. These Blueprints are strategic plans developed by the Welsh Government in partnership with the UK Ministry of Justice and other agencies such as Her Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) Wales and Youth Justice Board (YJB) Cymru to create a fair justice system in Wales.
In a recent statement on the Blueprints, the Cabinet Secretary for Social Justice, Jane Hutt MS, reiterated the case for devolving justice to Wales:
Having justice delivered by one Government in Wales will allow us to embed a truly integrated approach to this area, with social justice at its heart, rather than justice being split across the so-called jagged edge between the UK and Welsh Governments.
However, despite this commitment to collaboration, the Cabinet Secretary acknowledged she has not held direct discussions with the UK Government about the fact that over a quarter of Welsh prisoners are held in English prisons.
What about women?
The stalled development of a women’s residential centre in Swansea (a 12-bed community-based facility designed to provide an alternative to short prison sentences for women who have committed low-level offences) highlights the ongoing gap in provision for women in the Welsh justice system. Intended as a key part of the Women’s Justice Blueprint, the centre was due to open in 2024, offering trauma-informed, rehabilitative support closer to home. However, despite planning permission being granted, the project remains on hold. UK Prisons Minister Lord Timpson recently confirmed it is now only “under consideration” and awaits Treasury funding.
Wales currently has no women’s prison. All Welsh women sentenced to custody are held in England—often over 100 miles from home—disrupting family contact, rehabilitation, and reintegration. The number of Welsh women in prison is projected to rise from 245 to 285 by 2027, yet the infrastructure to support them remains absent.
The Welsh Government continues to advocate for the Swansea centre as a more appropriate, community-based alternative to custody.
Prison expansion – not just a criminal justice issue?
The impact of new or enlarged facilities reaches far beyond the prison walls. Prison expansion in Wales is not just a criminal justice issue—it’s a community issue.
Prisons like HMP Berwyn in Wrexham were intended to support rehabilitation and resettlement, yet recent evidence suggests HMP Berwyn is now operating as a standard institution, raising questions about its effectiveness in reducing reoffending.
Local communities bear many of the hidden costs: Welsh health boards fund public prison healthcare, local authorities must approve planning applications, and public services support people leaving custody.
As Clinks highlights, without meaningful rehabilitation, prison expansion risks deepening social challenges rather than solving them.
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This article is the first in a series exploring key aspects of criminal justice in Wales, from the current devolution settlement and intergovernmental working, to probation, youth justice policy, and policing. |
Article by Sarah Hatherley, Senedd Research, Welsh Parliament.
