Estimating the timeline of the Brexit negotiations (25/10/2018)

Published 25/10/2018   |   Last Updated 27/05/2021   |   Reading Time minutes

In April 2017, the Research Service published its first Brexit timeline which aimed to set out the key events in negotiations on the UK’s exit from the EU along with domestic preparations for the UK’s withdrawal over the 24 month negotiating period. In publishing that first timeline we committed to update and develop the timeline as the negotiations progressed.

Below is the fourth iteration of the timeline. We published the third iteration in May 2018. The timeline is based on the best public information available at this time and is likely to be subject to further refinements and amendments as negotiations progress over the coming weeks and months.

Since the last iteration of the timeline in May, the UK Government has published its vision for a future relationship with the EU and published a series of ‘technical notices’ on no-deal preparations. The UK and Welsh Governments have also started to introduce laws and regulations in relation to Brexit. However the date for the final sign off the Withdrawal Agreement is yet to be confirmed, but is now expected to be in December. It is largely recognised that the majority of the Withdrawal Agreement has been agreed, but there are ongoing negotiations regarding the border on the island of Ireland. Alongside the Withdrawal Agreement there will be a Political Declaration on the future relationship between the EU and UK. This declaration will have no legal effect.

If these negotiations cannot reach a mutually agreeable conclusion then it is possible that the UK would leave the EU with ‘no deal’.

If agreed, the Withdrawal Agreement must also be approved by both the European Parliament and the UK Parliament. This can only happen  after the UK Parliament has approved the final deal under the process set out in the EU (Withdrawal) Act 2018. This Act stipulates that a Bill to give effect to the Withdrawal Agreement in UK domestic law should be introduced. The Bill has to be passed before the UK’s withdrawal from the EU on 29 March 2019.

You can stay up to date with the latest Brexit news in Wales through our regular Brexit Updates and our Brexit Negotiation Monitoring Report and you can see all the latest Brexit activity from across the Assembly on the Assembly’s Brexit and Wales webpage.

Article by Helen Jones, Joe Champion, Peter Hill and Manon George, National Assembly for Wales Research Service